Ontario’s condominium resale market is under pressure—bearing ample inventory, cooling prices, and shifting buyer behaviors. For those hoping to “move up”—selling their existing condo to purchase a larger unit—the timing has rarely been trickier.
📉 Market Snapshot: Oversupply Meets Cooling Demand
Key Figures Table: GTA Resale Condo Market vs. Pre‑Pandemic Levels
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resale condo sales vs pre‑2020 | –25% | As of July–Q2; resale activity lagging significantly |
| Active resale listings | ~9,700 in Q1 2025 | +42% YoY; stock piling up |
| Months of supply | ~6.2 months | Triple historical norm (~2 months) |
| Price change from 2023Q3 to end‑2025 | –15 % to –20 % | ~10 points drop expected in 2025 |
| YoY price decline in 2024 | –4 % | Resale benchmark dipped |
Chart 1: Pricing Trend (2023Q1 – 2025Q4)
(A line chart showing the drop from a peak in 2023Q3, falling steadily through 2025 with forecasts to year‑end.)
- 1.5% average quarterly decline since 2023Q4
- Forecasted 15–20% cumulative drop from 2023 peaks
🏗 New‑Build Boom vs. Weak Resale
Stats Comparison Table
| Segment | 2024 Sales | Trend | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTHA New condos | ~4,600 | –64% y/y; lowest since 1996 | Investors pulling out |
| Ontario Land Transfers | ~15,000 new condo units | +78% y/y | Flood of completions |
| Resale activity | At decade‑low | New builds dominating; less demand for older units |
👉 Bottom line: Move‑up buyers aren’t just competing against peers—they’re pricing their resale units against a glut of new, turnkey builds with fresh finishes and modern amenities.
💵 The Move-Up Dilemma
- Price Mismatch & Limited Equity
- Prices on resale stock are dropping faster than in low‑rise or single‑family markets.
- Many move‑up buyers entered in 2020–22 at peak; selling now is often a loss.
- High Listings, Low Sales → Buyer’s Market
- SNLR (sales‑to‑new‑listings) fell below 30% — deep buyer’s market.
- Nearly 7 months of inventory—plenty of choice, downward pressure on prices
- Investor Exodus & Rental Market Softening
- Rent for one-bed condos dropped ~5% YoY
- Negative cash flows prompting investors to off‑load. Less demand keeps pricing soft.
- Dampened Appetite for Asset‑Upgrades
- Fed/BoC rate hikes eroded mortgage affordability, limiting how much buyers can borrow.
- Those aiming to move up are trapped: low resale values constrain “buying power.”
🎯 What Move‑Up Buyers Should Know
Strategy Table
| Challenge | Suggested Response |
|---|---|
| Limited equity | Calculate current loan payoff vs net sale proceeds precisely |
| Buyers’ market pressure | Be prepared to price under comps—act as a listing and buying agent simultaneously |
| New builds competition | Emphasize staging, renovations, and strong pricing on existing unit |
| Financing gap | Partner with Co-buyers or consider bridging loan from parents or TFSAs |
Visual Tip: A flowchart highlighting steps:
Sell existing condo → reassess budget → price competitively → scout larger units/new builds → finalize sale & purchase simultaneously.
⏳ Outlook for 2025–26
- Short-term: Continued pain. Forecasts show another 10% drop through end‑2025 RedditRedditmariahomes.ca.
- 2026+: Conditions may improve slowly—BoC rate cuts, fewer completions, pent-up demand .
- But inventory remains high; recovery will be gradual.
🧭 Final Take
Move‑up buyers in Ontario face a market skewed in favor of buyers: overbuilt, under-demanded, and still correcting. If you’re planning a move, the smartest route is to:
- Sell first, secure your position;
- Price strategically, even if it means sacrificing a bit of value;
- Time your buy, targeting late‑2025 or early‑2026 when the cycle turns.
SLG Property Deals stands ready to craft tailored strategies for move‑up buyers. We can optimize your resale, present your unit compellingly, and guide you on where to invest when you’re ready.